Wednesday, August 22, 2012: Today’s Rasmussen and Gallup “If the election were today” poll numbers have Likely Voters and Registered Voters both at Romney +2.
RASMUSSEN
(3 day rolling average 8/19 – 8/21) MOE 3.0 (1500 Likely Voters)
Obama 44% vs. Romney 46% vs. Other 5% vs. Undecided 5%
GALLUP
(3 day rolling average 8/15 – 8/21) MOE 2.0 (3050 Registered Voters)
Obama 45% vs. Romney 47% vs. Not reported (where I could access it) 8%
Limbaugh noted that, “In swing states, Romney and Ryan are gaining ground. And in some places, it’s small but it’s perceptible. … [Democrats] live in a bubble. They lie to themselves about their own popularity. They fall for it because the media creates a false impression of just how many people do support Democrats and liberals in this country. … [But] nobody’s showing up at Obama appearances. … There isn’t the enthusiasm for Obama that there was. Nowhere near it.”
As an example of how they lie to themselves, the latest AP/GfK poll (Registered Voters) has Obama up by one. But I’ve dug into the AP/GfK poll demographics more than once and demonstrated to all y’all how, when their pro-Dem skew is corrected, their numbers match Gallup’s.
Gallup has some other figures that should put HOPE in our hearts for CHANGE in November.
American Adults who answered “Quite a lot” to “How much thought have you given the election?” show Republicans enjoying a 13 point advantage over Democrats: Democrat 61% vs. Republican 74% vs. Independent 60%
RE: The 40% of all-important Independents who are still not engaged
As a former unengaged Independent, I can attest to paying zero attention to elections until after the flurry of back-to-school was over. The next weeks will be interesting!
My best advice … if you’re talking to an undecided (or Obama-ite who seems thoroughly underwhelmed), LISTEN for their key issue. Everybody’s got at least one hot button. LISTEN for that issue.
Also, pay attention to HOW they couch their concerns. Everybody has words and phrases that are particularly meaningful to them. If you don’t talk to them in their own patois, you are a lot less likely to make a lasting impression.
Respond with data on the KEY issue AND present that date in the terms that resonate for THAT person. If you can, go PRO-Romney/Ryan at least as much (if not more than) ANTI-Obama/Biden. As a former unengaged Independent, I can assure you that the “he’s a schmuck” argument did NOT make me want to vote for the other guy!
As for the sneering and insider jokes we enjoy so much amongst ourselves … AVOID THEM.
Unengaged Independents are not interested in politics as a spectator sport; they will not get the jokes and may very well be turned off to your assumption that of course they already agree with you. I know I was!
And NOTHING ticked me off more than someone going all wide-eyed with “I can’t BELIEVE you’re considering voting for THAT jerk!”
I may not have paid attention to politics, but I was very, very aware that for hundreds of years, good people had suffered, bled and died to win and keep my right to vote. The responsibility of their sacrifices, their blood, weighed heavily on me.
From the moment I turned 18, I prepared to vote with all the seriousness I gave to choosing my spouse. Entering the voting booth was a sacred event, as much as receiving Holy Eucharist.
I don’t imagine I am alone in this. When you’re talking to undecided voters, remember and respect this.
Sources:
http://www.wnd.com/2012/08/rush-maniacal-democrats-set-to-implode/
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/elections/
http://www.gallup.com/poll/156524/Voter-Engagement-Down-Slightly-Last-Two-Elections.aspx
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