Democrats currently hold 53 seats in the United States Senate.
67 sitting Senators are not up for reelection. If none leave, say to serve in the next President’s cabinet or something, they will bring 30 Democrat seats and 37 Republican seats to the 113th Congress.
33 seats are up for reelection. An analysis of these races by Larry Sabato, director of the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics, resulted in 16 that will probably go Democrat and 9 that will probably go Republican, resulting in absolute balance between parties at 46 to 46.
According to Sabato’s analysis, eight races can’t be called. These are:
1. Florida – Rep. Connie Mack IV (R) and incumbent Sen. Bill Nelson (D) are neck and neck, with a large number of undecideds.
2. Massachusetts – MA is a deep Blue State, but Republican Sen. Scott Brown (R) has been making all the right moves lately. Politics isn’t all about the issues, and to the extent Brown can make this race more about Bay State blue-collar culture, and less about specific issue stances, the better his chances become.
3. Missouri – Incumbent Sen. Claire McCaskill (D) is trailing all of her potential GOP challengers at Rasmussen, but the primary won’t be until Aug. 7, so it will be awhile before we know who is actually running against her.
4. Montana – The incumbent, Sen. Jon Tester (D), is running about even with the likely GOP challenger, Rep. Denny Rehberg (R).
5. Nevada – Rep. Shelley Berkley (D) is running to unseat appointed incumbent Sen. Dean Heller (R). No clear advantage to either at this point.
6. New Mexico – Democrat Jeff Bingaman is retiring. The parties have yet to choose their candidates.
7. Virginia – Democrat Jim Webb is retiring. The likely ballot this fall will be George Allen (R) vs. Tim Kaine (D). Many say this will be the most competitive Senate race in the country.
8. Wisconsin – Democrat Herb Kohl is retiring. The Senate primary won’t be until Aug. 14.
If Sabato’s analysis is correct, the race for partisan control of the Senate will be agonizingly tight.
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Sources:
http://townhall.com/tipsheet/erikajohnsen/2012/03/22/balance_of_power_the_2012_senate_tossups
http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/tilting-the-toss-ups-the-eight-races-that-will-decide-the-senate/
H/t: https://polination.wordpress.com/2012/03/23/the-friday-grudge-33/
polination.blog 
I am big time worried about that VA Senate race. It is a shame that George Allen felt the need to stick his nose back in it. He is a very weak candidate, who has been made weaker by the state Republican shenanigans this winter. It is a mess, and as usual the GOP have themselves to blame.
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We’ve been having nonstop campaigns and elections here in Wisconsin for the last couple of years — first the recall elections for state legislators, now the recall for the governor, and soon the presidential primary and Senate primary — and I think most people in this state are suffering from election fatigue. I hope and pray that Mark Neumann will win the GOP Senate primary and then beat whoever the Democrats run in November, but it’s going to be tough, especially in a presidential election year in a state that hasn’t voted for a Republican for president since Ronald Reagan.
(Oh, and in my town we’re also in the middle of elections for mayor and school board. I’m pretty jaded about those, as it doesn’t seem to make any difference who occupies those positions.)
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