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SUMMARY
Obama Range: 201 to 277
Romney Range: 191 to 261
Tossup Range: 66 to 191
Needed to win: 270
Sources:
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/archive/2012_electoral_college_scoreboard
http://www.electionprojection.com/2012elections/president12.php
http://www.intrade.com/v4/misc/electoral-map/
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map.html
H/t http://lastresistance.com/343/electoral-projection-maps-show-romney-gaining/
polination.blog 
AP-GFK POLL: ROMNEY ERASES OBAMA LEAD AMONG WOMEN
http://nation.foxnews.com/2012-presidential-race/2012/10/25/ap-poll-romney-erases-obama-lead-among-women
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I got an email from Lloyd Marcus:
There’s news out from RealClearPolitics this morning. Their new Electoral College map shows that this election will likely be determined on what happens in 5 key states:
Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Iowa and Ohio.
Several weeks ago all five of these states were colored “Dark Blue” – meaning that polls showed that they were solidly in Obama’s camp. Then a couple weeks ago they were all moved to “Light Blue” meaning that they were leaning towards Obama. And now, all 5 states are colored “Gray” – meaning that they are Toss-Up states which could go either way on Election Day.
These states account for 70 Electoral Votes, and if we can win 3 of these 5 states, then Barack Obama cannot win re-election.
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Romney campaign on OHIO – Oct 25
http://www.mittromney.com/blog/state-ohio-presidential-campaign
Rasmussen this week showed it tied at 48%, Suffolk tied at 47%, and Angus-Reid tied at 48%.
Our view is that the race is a dead heat with Romney on an unmistakable upward track.
All the public surveys show Romney winning among Independent voters.
Looking back at the past five major statewide races in Ohio, the candidate who wins Independents has won the state
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RCP has Ohio at Obama +2.1
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map.html#battlegrounds
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Oops, RCP is factoring in pre-3rd-debate polls. The latest one is from Rasmussen, October 24, 2012, and it’s a tie.
The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Ohio Voters, taken the night after the final presidential debate, shows both President Obama and Mitt Romney attracting 48% of the vote. Two percent (2%) plan to vote for some other candidate, and three percent (3%) are undecided.
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Real Clear Politics has Obama at +4.8 in Pennsylvania.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/pa/pennsylvania_romney_vs_obama-1891.html
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Latest poll listed at RCP for Michigan
http://www.myfoxdetroit.com/story/19905504/michigan-poll-obama-and-romney-in-dead-heat
Thirty five thousand (35,000) calls were placed, and 1,122 respondents fully participated in the survey. The margin of error for this total polling sample is 2.93% with a confidence level of 95%.
The 2012 United States Presidential election will be held on November 6, 2012. Who are you most likely to vote for in the election?
President Barack Obama 46.92%
Republican Nominee Mitt Romney 46.56%
another candidate 2.30%
Undecided 4.23%
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WISCONSIN @ Rasmussen … latest poll I could find, but still pre-3rd-debate.
October 19, 2012 – Obama 50% vs Romney 48% vs. Other 1%.
No undecided listed, so dunno if all these are rounded down enough to add up to the final 1% or what. Plus no 3rd debate data, so who knows.
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