Category Archives: Polls

by | October 18, 2012 · 4:04 pm

October 18, 2012 – Short Notes

Happy 63rd Birthday to my Dearest and Bestest Friend.

October 10, 2012: Suffolk University pollster says they will no longer poll in Florida, Virginia or North Carolina. “We’ve already painted those red.”

Rasmussen Likely Voters Nationwide shows 2d Prez Debate shook the confidence of some borderline Obama voters.

October 17 = Romney 49% vs Obama 48% vs. Other 1% vs. Undecided 2%

October 18 = Romney 49% vs. Obama 47% vs. Other 2% vs. Undecided 2%

Republican governors have proven that conservative fiscal policies work.

Most of the states that are doing relatively well, that is, better than the others, have Republican governors.

Good News!

Newsweek announced it will stop publishing its print edition at the end of 2012.

Stupid Democrat Alert

Eva Longoria, an Obama campaign co-chair, opined to her 4,462,095 Twitter followers that anyone who votes for that “racist/misogynist” Romney is “stupid.” After she took some heat for her tweet, she said she was “sorry if people were offended” and that what she tweeted “obviously” was “not my personal view.”

October 18, 2012: Jobless claims UP

Weekly applications for U.S. unemployment benefits jumped 46,000 last week to a seasonally adjusted 388,000, the highest in four months.

————

Sources:

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

http://www.foxnews.com/entertainment/2012/10/18/newsweek-will-end-print-edition-at-year-end-one-year-shy-80th-anniversary/

http://www.foxnews.com/entertainment/2012/10/18/eva-longoria-apologizes-for-retweeting-offensive-mitt-romney-message-after-kind/

http://www.americanthinker.com/2012/10/o-h-i-o_bo_must_go.html

http://www.cnbc.com/id/49460659

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Filed under Barack Obama, Mitt Romney, Polls

by | October 1, 2012 · 8:03 am

Does this mean I’ve hit the big time?

I love it! 🙂

Click on graphic to embiggen.

The article is @ http://newsbusters.org/blogs/matthew-sheffield/2012/09/29/polling-industry-has-historically-underestimated-gop-vote

Why The Polls Understate Romney Vote By Dick Morris – September 21, 2012
http://www.dickmorris.com/why-the-polls-under-state-romney-vote/

Republicans are getting depressed under an avalanche of polling suggesting that an Obama victory is in the offing. They, in fact, suggest no such thing! Here’s why:

1. All of the polling out there uses some variant of the 2008 election turnout as its model for weighting respondents and this overstates the Democratic vote by a huge margin.

In English, this means that when you do a poll you ask people if they are likely to vote. But any telephone survey always has too few blacks, Latinos, and young people and too many elderly in its sample. That’s because some don’t have landlines or are rarely at home or don’t speak English well enough to be interviewed or don’t have time to talk. Elderly are overstated because they tend to be home and to have time. So you need to increase the weight given to interviews with young people, blacks and Latinos and count those with seniors a bit less.

Normally, this task is not difficult. Over the years, the black, Latino, young, and elderly proportion of the electorate has been fairly constant from election to election, except for a gradual increase in the Hispanic vote. You just need to look back at the last election to weight your polling numbers for this one.

But 2008 was no ordinary election. Blacks, for example, usually cast only 11% of the vote, but, in 2008, they made up 14% of the vote. Latinos increased their share of the vote by 1.5% and college kids almost doubled their vote share. Almost all pollsters are using the 2008 turnout models in weighting their samples. Rasmussen, more accurately, uses a mixture of 2008 and 2004 turnouts in determining his sample. That’s why his data usually is better for Romney.

But polling indicates a widespread lack of enthusiasm among Obama’s core demographic support due to high unemployment, disappointment with his policies and performance, and the lack of novelty in voting for a black candidate now that he has already served as president.

If you adjust virtually any of the published polls to reflect the 2004 vote, not the 2008 vote, they show the race either tied or Romney ahead, a view much closer to reality.

2. Almost all of the published polls show Obama getting less than 50% of the vote and less than 50% job approval. A majority of the voters either support Romney or are undecided in almost every poll.

But the fact is that the undecided vote always goes against the incumbent. In 1980 (the last time an incumbent Democrat was beaten), for example, the Gallup Poll of October 27th had Carter ahead by 45-39. Their survey on November 2nd showed Reagan catching up and leading by three points. In the actual voting, the Republican won by nine. The undecided vote broke sharply — and unanimously — for the challenger.

An undecided voter has really decided not to back the incumbent. He just won’t focus on the race until later in the game.

So, when the published poll shows Obama ahead by, say, 48-45, he’s really probably losing by 52-48!

Add these two factors together and the polls that are out there are all misleading. Any professional pollster (those consultants hired by candidates not by media outlets) would publish two findings for each poll — one using 2004 turnout modeling and the other using 2008 modeling. This would indicate just how dependent on an unusually high turnout of his base the Obama camp really is.

6 Comments

Filed under Democrats, Elections, Polls, Republicans

by | September 25, 2012 · 9:51 pm

Pay no attention to the man behind the curtain

In 1984, when Reagan was running for re-election against Mondale, the Washington Post published a poll saying Reagan’s lead in his home state of California had dropped alarmingly.

A short while later, in the greatest landslide victory in presidential history, Reagan won 49 states; in California, he won by more than 16 points. The only state he lost was where Mondale barely squeaked 49.72% to Reagan’s 49.54% out of his own homies.

When Reagan’s campaign manager tasked Ben Bradlee about the Washington Post’s “lousy polling methodology”, Bradlee shot back,

“Tough sh…t. … It’s my in-kind contribution to the Mondale campaign.”

Got that?

The EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR of a major metropolitan newspaper had NO PROBLEM using his elite, protected position to PIMP the Democrat, rather than EDUCATE the voters!

Chrissy’s Site Bites @ http://news.webshots.com/photo/2454250200056011884KFrJXA

Click on graphic to embiggen.

The Obama campaign has been whining non-stop about the allegedly HUGE spending by rich Republicans who want to “buy” the White House for Romney and Ryan.

Apart from the fact that it’s mostly a load of unsubstantiated donkey doo, the campaigns being very close in total spending
http://news.webshots.com/photo/2358484380056011884jdKmUF, it also doesn’t count at all the “in kind contributions” of the left-wing media and their biased poll reporting.

Like Jimmy Carter in 1980, Obama is increasingly seen as a disaster in both economic and foreign policy. His Gallup job approval rating has been at or below 50% for nearly his entire time in office.

So … heck yes, Virginia. The polls showing Obama leading over Romney are nothing more than the grossly biased, in-kind contributions of the left-wing media.

Let me just repeat what I said yesterday. It is what it is. Accept it and work around it. THEY want the polls to get Republicans too bummed to bother voting; but those polls could just as easily make lazy Democrats stay at home.

Tell your fellow Romney supporters the polls are biased and they MUST VOTE.

And pray for bad weather!

If you like this, you might also want to read https://polination.wordpress.com/2012/09/23/increasingly-irrelevant/

Sources:

http://spectator.org/archives/2012/09/25/how-carter-beat-reagan

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_1980

H/t Pistol Pete

8 Comments

Filed under Elections, Polls

by | September 22, 2012 · 8:45 pm

Sept 22 at Rasmussen

Rasmussen is running regular Obama vs. Romney polls nationally and in 11 key states won by Obama in 2008 and thought to be competitive in 2012. These states collectively hold 146 Electoral College votes.

In 2008, Obama won these states (Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin) by a combined margin of 53% to 46%, virtually identical to his national margin.

September 22, 2012: After modest post-convention bounces for both candidates, the race is now back to where it was at the beginning of the month. Numbers include Leaners, those who initially say they are uncommitted but who lean towards one of the candidates when asked a follow-up question.

NATIONAL    Obama 46% vs. Romney 46% vs. Undecided 5% vs. Other 3%
SWING         Obama 48% vs. Romney 47% vs. Undecided 5%

Sources:
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_swing_state_tracking_poll
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

6 Comments

Filed under Barack Obama, Elections, Mitt Romney, Polls

by | September 17, 2012 · 8:03 pm

The only poll that matters will be in November

Check out these two Michigan polls from late August, six days apart. One had Obama ahead by five; the other had Romney ahead by four.

August 15, 2012: New poll has Obama ahead by five in Michigan

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/polls/244113-poll-obama-leads-in-swing-state-michigan

Obama 49% vs. Romney 44% vs. Other 3% vs. Undecided 4%

August 21, 2012: New poll has Romney ahead by four in Michigan

http://www.myfoxdetroit.com/story/19329562/new-michigan-poll-has-romney-ahead-of-obama

Obama 43.88% vs. Romney 47.68% vs. Other 3.96% vs. Undecided 4.01%

I saw Leftie Media Types bleating about us Right-Wingers yammering on about demographics and methodology, as in blah blah blah. But hello? Do you think maybe it MATTERS WHO THEY ASK? Sheesh.

Meanwhile, Republicans who don’t like Romney are moaning about the Obama-is-ahead polls, as if they somehow prove the guy they liked should’ve won the nomination. Double sheesh.

And guess what neither of these groups is reporting on? RASMUSSEN’s polls.

Chrissy’s Site Bites @ http://news.webshots.com/photo/2311707940056011884QddOlR

Click on graphic to embiggen.

If you like this, you might also want to read @ https://polination.wordpress.com/2012/09/15/lions-and-tigers-and-rich-people-oh-my/

Source: http://twitchy.com/2012/09/17/erick-erickson-says-romney-is-losing-rasmussen-begs-to-differ/

6 Comments

Filed under Media Bias, Polls

by | September 6, 2012 · 2:49 pm

Obama vs Gallup – The Chicago Way

Chrissy’s Site Bites @ http://news.webshots.com/photo/2016995350056011884bYYEvQ

Click on graphic to embiggen.

If you like this, you might also want to read @ https://polination.wordpress.com/2012/07/23/obamas-enemy-list/

H/t Pistol Pete

Source @ http://dailycaller.com/2012/09/06/justice-dept-gallup-lawsuit-came-after-axelrod-criticized-pollsters/

3 Comments

Filed under Polls

by | September 2, 2012 · 12:04 pm

Obama vs. Romney at Rasmussen

Chrissy’s Site Bites @ http://news.webshots.com/photo/2844901250056011884YqKomD

Click on graphic to embiggen.

If you like this, you might also want to read @ https://polination.wordpress.com/2012/09/02/class-vs-crass/

1 Comment

Filed under Barack Obama, Mitt Romney, Polls

by | August 29, 2012 · 6:06 am

GALLUP Daily Numbers for Aug 27, 2012

Obama Approval 43% vs. Obama Disapproval 48%

Presidential Election: Obama 46% vs. Romney 47%

Unemployed 8.0%

Underemployed 17.0%

Fully Employed 66.8%

Source @ http://www.gallup.com/home.aspx

Comments Off on GALLUP Daily Numbers for Aug 27, 2012

Filed under Barack Obama, Mitt Romney, Polls, Unemployment

by | August 22, 2012 · 6:39 pm

We’re near the home stretch

Wednesday, August 22, 2012: Today’s Rasmussen and Gallup “If the election were today” poll numbers have Likely Voters and Registered Voters both at Romney +2.

RASMUSSEN

(3 day rolling average 8/19 – 8/21) MOE 3.0 (1500 Likely Voters)

Obama 44% vs. Romney 46% vs. Other 5% vs. Undecided 5%

GALLUP

(3 day rolling average 8/15 – 8/21) MOE 2.0 (3050 Registered Voters)

Obama 45% vs. Romney 47% vs. Not reported (where I could access it) 8%

Limbaugh noted that, “In swing states, Romney and Ryan are gaining ground. And in some places, it’s small but it’s perceptible. … [Democrats] live in a bubble. They lie to themselves about their own popularity. They fall for it because the media creates a false impression of just how many people do support Democrats and liberals in this country. … [But] nobody’s showing up at Obama appearances. … There isn’t the enthusiasm for Obama that there was. Nowhere near it.”

As an example of how they lie to themselves, the latest AP/GfK poll (Registered Voters) has Obama up by one. But I’ve dug into the AP/GfK poll demographics more than once and demonstrated to all y’all how, when their pro-Dem skew is corrected, their numbers match Gallup’s.

Gallup has some other figures that should put HOPE in our hearts for CHANGE in November.

American Adults who answered “Quite a lot” to “How much thought have you given the election?” show Republicans enjoying a 13 point advantage over Democrats: Democrat 61% vs. Republican 74% vs. Independent 60%

RE: The 40% of all-important Independents who are still not engaged

As a former unengaged Independent, I can attest to paying zero attention to elections until after the flurry of back-to-school was over. The next weeks will be interesting!

My best advice … if you’re talking to an undecided (or Obama-ite who seems thoroughly underwhelmed), LISTEN for their key issue. Everybody’s got at least one hot button. LISTEN for that issue.

Also, pay attention to HOW they couch their concerns. Everybody has words and phrases that are particularly meaningful to them. If you don’t talk to them in their own patois, you are a lot less likely to make a lasting impression.

Respond with data on the KEY issue AND present that date in the terms that resonate for THAT person. If you can, go PRO-Romney/Ryan at least as much (if not more than) ANTI-Obama/Biden. As a former unengaged Independent, I can assure you that the “he’s a schmuck” argument did NOT make me want to vote for the other guy!

As for the sneering and insider jokes we enjoy so much amongst ourselves … AVOID THEM.

Unengaged Independents are not interested in politics as a spectator sport; they will not get the jokes and may very well be turned off to your assumption that of course they already agree with you. I know I was!

And NOTHING ticked me off more than someone going all wide-eyed with “I can’t BELIEVE you’re considering voting for THAT jerk!”

I may not have paid attention to politics, but I was very, very aware that for hundreds of years, good people had suffered, bled and died to win and keep my right to vote. The responsibility of their sacrifices, their blood, weighed heavily on me.

From the moment I turned 18, I prepared to vote with all the seriousness I gave to choosing my spouse. Entering the voting booth was a sacred event, as much as receiving Holy Eucharist.

I don’t imagine I am alone in this. When you’re talking to undecided voters, remember and respect this.

Sources:

http://www.wnd.com/2012/08/rush-maniacal-democrats-set-to-implode/

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/elections/

http://www.gallup.com/poll/156524/Voter-Engagement-Down-Slightly-Last-Two-Elections.aspx

Comments Off on We’re near the home stretch

Filed under Barack Obama, Mitt Romney, Polls

by | August 16, 2012 · 5:33 pm

Purple Strategies

A new poll of four critical swing states by Purple Strategies, taken after Mitt Romney selected Paul Ryan as his running mate. Virginia and Ohio flipped to Romney-Ryan. In Florida and Colorado, Romney-Ryan lost ground, though no change in who is ahead. Numbers below.

Summary: R&R ahead in Virginia, Ohio and Florida; O&B in Colorado. I plugged these four wins into the electoral map calculator @ 270towin. Results: Obama 210 vs. Romney 251 vs. Unsure 77. At the moment, Obama needs 60 more to win, while Romney only needs 19 more. Pennsylvania is worth 20. Just sayin’. 🙂

VIRGINIA Shift from Obama and Unsure to Romney-Ryan +4

Pre-Ryan JULY Obama 46% vs. Romney 44% vs. Unsure 10% = 100%

Post-Ryan AUG Obama 45% vs. Romney 48% vs. Unsure 8% = 101% ?

OHIO Shift from Obama to Unsure +3 and Romney-Ryan +1

Pre-Ryan JULY Obama 48% vs. Romney 45% vs. Unsure 7% = 100%

Post-Ryan AUG Obama 44% vs. Romney 46% vs. Unsure 10% = 100%

FLORIDA Shift from Unsure to Obama +2, Romney-Ryan steady, ahead by 2 less

Pre-Ryan JULY Obama 45% vs. Romney 48% vs. Unsure 7% = 100%

Post-Ryan AUG Obama 47% vs. Romney 48% vs. Unsure 5% = 100%

COLORADO Shift from Unsure to Obama +4 and from Unsure to Romney-Ryan +2

Pre-Ryan JULY Obama 45% vs. Romney 44% vs. Unsure 11% = 100%

Post-Ryan AUG Obama 49% vs. Romney 46% vs. Unsure 6% = 101% ?

I’m guessing the b.s. Obama is pimping about Medicare is the biggest thing hurting R&R right now. That ought to change once the truth gets out. Key fact: Medicare as we know it is going to end if we do nothing. Changing it is the only way to save it. The R&R plan doesn’t affect anyone 55 or older. Obama has no plan.

Source:

http://www.purplestrategies.com/wp-content/uploads/PurplePoll_Aug15_Final.pdf

1 Comment

Filed under Barack Obama, Elections, Medicare/Medicaid, Mitt Romney, Polls