Obama’s “Betting on America” tour

Obama spent July 5 and 6 tooling around Ohio in his Canadian-made bus telling everyone how Very Committed He Is to Economic Growth and Job Creation for Americans.

Click on graphic to embiggen.

Ohio is an important swing state. Obama won it in 2008 by 4%. A recent Quinnipiac poll claimed he is ahead of Romney 47% to 38% among Registered Voters in Ohio. But I compared the poll samples with Gallup’s Party Affiliation poll and found a significant skew.

                        Quin    Gallup

Democrat        34%     30%

Republican     26%     30%

Independent    34%    39%

Meh                     6%        1%

I also found a somewhat older, but specific-to-Ohio poll at Gallup that, with leaners, showed Ohio at:

Democrat 42.5% vs. Republican 41.2% vs. 16.3% Neither.

I looks to me like Quinnipiac gave Democrats a totally unrealistic 8 point advantage! No WAY is Obama leading Romney by nine points. Sheesh.

Look what happens when Quinnipiac’s results are adjusted to line up with Gallup’s numbers.

Q. Vote for Obama   47% – 4% = 43%

Gallup: Ohio Democrat                 42.5%

Q. Vote for Romney   38% + 4% = 42%

Gallup:  Ohio Republican               41.2%

Q. Other, Undecided, Wouldn’t Vote   15%

Gallup Ohio Neither Party Preference 16.3%

Isn’t it interesting how closely the adjusted numbers match Gallup’s 2011 numbers?

Now check out what Rasmussen found when they polled Likely Voters in Ohio recently.

                 April    May

Obama   46%     44%

Romney  42%    46%

Neither    12%    10%

People know Obama. I can’t help thinking that anyone who is likely to vote for him is already committed to him and that the more we get to see of Romney, the more we’ll see of the same kind of shift away from Obama/Neither and toward Romney.

If you like this, you might also enjoy @ https://polination.wordpress.com/2012/05/12/check-it-out-2/

Sources:

http://mindfulwebworks.com/radical/obama-bus-tour-didnt-gamble-on-american-made

http://whitehouse.blogs.cnn.com/2012/07/05/obamas-betting-on-america-campaign-bus-tour/

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/presidential-swing-states-%28fl-oh-and-pa%29/release-detail?ReleaseID=1767

http://www.gallup.com/poll/15370/Party-Affiliation.aspx

http://www.gallup.com/poll/125066/State-States.aspx

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/ohio/election_2012_ohio_president