How the electoral vote is shaping up

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Florida (29): Obama won by a slim 2.8% margin and on May 3, 2012, Quinnipiac found Romney up by SIX! (Romney 47% vs. Obama 41%)

Ohio (18): Obama won by 4.6%. But on May 10, 2012, Quinnipiac found Obama up by only one. (Obama 45% vs. Romney 44%)

Pennsylvania (16): On May 21, 2012, Rasmussen had Obama up by six (Obama 47% vs. Romney 41%), but he won by 10.4% (Obama 54.7% vs. McCain 44.3%).  Karl Rove believes Obama’s antipathy toward coal and problems with working-class whites and suburban independents could tip the balance.

Virginia (13): Obama won by a healthy 6%. However on April 25, 2012, Rasmussen found Romney up by one. (Romney 45% vs. Obama 44%)

Wisconsin (10):  Obama won by 13.9%. In April, a Marquette poll (Likely Voters) found Obama’s up by four, but this week, he and Romney are TIED.

Colorado (9): On April 23, 2012, a Purple Strategies Poll (Likely Voters) showed Obama and Romney tied at 47% each.

Iowa (6): The most recent poll shows Obama up by ten, but Team Obama is targeting Ohio for special attention with TV ads, which suggests they’re worried.

Nevada (6): Latest poll (Rasmussen) shows Obama up by eight. But Nevada has the nation’s highest unemployment rate (11.7%).

New Hampshire (4): The polls are all over the place. The spread goes from Obama ahead by 12 to Romney ahead by 10. In 2004, Kerry won by only 1%.

Breakdown of electoral vote changes due to 2010 Census

DARK RED States (McCain): Arizona +1, Georgia +1, South Carolina +1, Texas +4, Utah +1

LIGHT RED States (McCain): Louisiana -1, Missouri -1

SWING States (Obama): Florida +2, Nevada +1, Ohio -2

LIGHT BLUE States (Obama): Iowa -1

DARK BLUE States (Obama): Illinois -1, Massachusetts -1, Michigan -1, New Jersey -1, New York -2, Pennsylvania -1, Washington +1

Votes in last 4 Presidential Elections:
Dark Red GOP 4, Light Red GOP 3, Swing 2 & 2, Light Blue DNC 3, Dark Blue DNC 4


Which States Gained and Lost Electoral Votes

Rasmussen (Likely Voters) Daily Presidential Tracking Poll

Rasmussen Virginia Matchup – April 25, 2012

Quinnipiac Ohio Matchup (Registered Voters) – May 10, 2012

Quinnipiac Florida Matchup – May 3, 2012

Rasmussen Pennsylvania Matchup – May 23, 2012

2008 Presidential Election Results in Pennsylvania

Marquette (Likely Voters) Wisconsin Matchup – May 16, 2012

Statewide opinion polling for US presidential election 2012,_2012

Purple Predictors

Real Clear Politics New Hampshire poll summary

Rove: Romney’s Roads to the White House By Karl Rove – May 23, 2012


Filed under Barack Obama, Elections, John McCain, Mitt Romney, Polls

5 responses to “How the electoral vote is shaping up

  1. GP

    And don’t forget, It was not all the college kids voting who tipped the scales for Barry. It was the conservatives who stayed home because they were just not that into McCain. If they get off their duffs and vote this time, Barry will lose in a landslide because the college kids are back in the frat halls and could care less.


  2. GP

    Here is something I got in an email that is a good thing to send to our lib friends who still believe it is all Bush’s fault:
    I’ve been saying this and wondering why the Republicans aren’t pointing it out !!

    *Did you know that 45% of registered voters did not vote in the last
    election… If you are one of them don’t complain about the financial
    condition of this country. You can call the county clerk and ask for and
    application for a mail in ballot. One Postage stamp and a trip to the post
    office will take care of that.*****

    ** **


    This tells the story, why Bush was so bad at the end of his term.****

    Please read this slowly and let it sink in. If in doubt, check it out.

    The day the democrats took over was *not* January 22nd 2009, it was
    actually January 3, 2007… the day the Democrats took over the House of
    Representatives and the Senate, at the very start of the 110th Congress.

    The Democrat Party controlled a majority in both chambers for the first
    time since the end of the 103rd Congress in 1995.

    For those who are listening to the liberals propagating the fallacy that
    everything is “Bush’s Fault”, think about this:
    January 3rd, 2007 was the day the Democrats took over the Senate and the
    Congress. At the time:

    The DOW Jones closed at 12,621.77
    The GDP for the previous quarter was 3.5%
    The Unemployment rate was 4.6%

    George Bush’s Economic policies SET A RECORD of 52 STRAIGHT MONTHS of JOB
    Remember the day…

    January 3rd, 2007 was the day that Barney Frank took over the House
    Financial Services Committee and Chris Dodd took over the Senate Banking

    The economic meltdown that happened 15 months later was in what part of the

    Unemployment… to this CRISIS by (among MANY other things) dumping 5-6
    TRILLION Dollars of toxic loans on the economy from YOUR Fannie Mae and
    Freddie Mac FIASCOES!

    Bush asked Congress *17 TIMES* to stop Fannie & Freddie – starting in 2001
    because it was financially risky for the ****US**** economy.

    And who took the THIRD highest pay-off from Fannie Mae AND Freddie Mac?
    And who fought against reform of Fannie and Freddie?
    OBAMA and the Democrat Congress
    So when someone tries to blame Bush..****

    Budgets do not come from the White House. They come from Congress, and the
    party that controlled Congress since January 2007 is the Democrat Party.

    Furthermore, the Democrats controlled the budget process for 2008 & 2009 as
    well as 2010 & 2011.
    In that first year, they had to contend with George Bush, which caused them
    to compromise on spending, when Bush somewhat belatedly got tough on
    spending increases.

    For 2009 though, Nancy Pelosi & Harry Reid bypassed George Bush entirely,
    passing continuing resolutions to keep government running until Barack
    Obama could take office. At that time, they passed a massive omnibus
    spending bill to complete the 2009 budgets.

    And where was Barack Obama during this time? He was a member of that very
    Congress that passed all of these massive spending bills, and he signed the
    omnibus bill as President to complete 2009.

    If the Democrats inherited any deficit, it was the 2007 deficit, the last
    of the Republican budgets. That* **deficit was the lowest in five years,
    and the fourth straight decline in deficit spending*. After that, Democrats
    in Congress took control of spending, and that includes Barack Obama, who
    voted for the budgets.

    If Obama inherited anything, he inherited it from himself. In a nutshell,
    what Obama is saying is “I inherited a deficit that I voted for and then I
    voted to expand that deficit four-fold since January 20th.”****


  3. Ting

    Virginia looks tough for Romney at the moment, and I live in what was (until the last 5 or 6 years) a solidly Republican district. Bush did a lot of damage around here, and also there are more people coming here from the Northeast. They can buy really nice homes here for what seems to them to be very low prices. I could not believe how many Obama signs were in my neighborhood in 2008, or the results in my precinct. I have already seen more Obama 2012 bumper stickers that I would have thought possible.

    I am getting ready to be so busy that I probably will not have time to comment, but I will try to read everything for the next 10-15 days. Ya’ll hold down the fort. And Bob, prayers for Wisconsin won’t stop.