By Chrissy the Hyphenated
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This poll may explain why Barry has suddenly decided to Bring Our Troops Home, over his general’s objections, but just in time to get him lots of free press for his re-election campaign. How I feel about this is best left unsaid.
The poll, however, I can yap about with verve and perhaps a touch of panache.
Gallup notes that polls from June-of-the-year-before are not highly predictive of election outcomes.
In two cases (both Bush), there was no distinct opposition front-runner by June-of-the-year-before and both presidents polled WAY ahead of the “generic Democrat.” One won the election. One lost.
In the other three cases, where there was a specific front-running opposition contender, the opposition candidate polled ahead of the president in the June-of-the-year-before Gallup poll.
Two of those – Clinton and Reagan – won re-election anyway. The third – Ronald Reagan – beat the incumbent.
None of the five is quite like this year’s situation, but there are clues in three of them that I find very cheering.
In both of the “Sitting Presidents v. Generic Opponent” polls gave the PRESIDENT a HUGE lead. Obama is behind.
And, in the one case where the weak, appeasing, Democrat president, Jimmy Carter, was running, his strong, conservative, Republican opponent, Ronald Reagan, polled slightly ahead of Carter, then won the election by a landslide.
Dear God, may we have another Reagan taking the Oath of Office in January 2013.
Poll at
http://www.gallup.com/poll/148076/2012-Voter-Preferences-Obama-Republican-Remain-Close.aspx
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