Category Archives: Polls

by | May 25, 2012 · 3:47 am

How the electoral vote is shaping up

Chrissy’s Site Bites @ http://news.webshots.com/photo/2155082180056011884EXZAcg

Click on graphic to embiggen.

BATTLEGROUNDS:

Florida (29): Obama won by a slim 2.8% margin and on May 3, 2012, Quinnipiac found Romney up by SIX! (Romney 47% vs. Obama 41%)

Ohio (18): Obama won by 4.6%. But on May 10, 2012, Quinnipiac found Obama up by only one. (Obama 45% vs. Romney 44%)

Pennsylvania (16): On May 21, 2012, Rasmussen had Obama up by six (Obama 47% vs. Romney 41%), but he won by 10.4% (Obama 54.7% vs. McCain 44.3%).  Karl Rove believes Obama’s antipathy toward coal and problems with working-class whites and suburban independents could tip the balance.

Virginia (13): Obama won by a healthy 6%. However on April 25, 2012, Rasmussen found Romney up by one. (Romney 45% vs. Obama 44%)

Wisconsin (10):  Obama won by 13.9%. In April, a Marquette poll (Likely Voters) found Obama’s up by four, but this week, he and Romney are TIED.

Colorado (9): On April 23, 2012, a Purple Strategies Poll (Likely Voters) showed Obama and Romney tied at 47% each.

Iowa (6): The most recent poll shows Obama up by ten, but Team Obama is targeting Ohio for special attention with TV ads, which suggests they’re worried.

Nevada (6): Latest poll (Rasmussen) shows Obama up by eight. But Nevada has the nation’s highest unemployment rate (11.7%).

New Hampshire (4): The polls are all over the place. The spread goes from Obama ahead by 12 to Romney ahead by 10. In 2004, Kerry won by only 1%.

—————————————————-
Breakdown of electoral vote changes due to 2010 Census

DARK RED States (McCain): Arizona +1, Georgia +1, South Carolina +1, Texas +4, Utah +1

LIGHT RED States (McCain): Louisiana -1, Missouri -1

SWING States (Obama): Florida +2, Nevada +1, Ohio -2

LIGHT BLUE States (Obama): Iowa -1

DARK BLUE States (Obama): Illinois -1, Massachusetts -1, Michigan -1, New Jersey -1, New York -2, Pennsylvania -1, Washington +1

Votes in last 4 Presidential Elections:
Dark Red GOP 4, Light Red GOP 3, Swing 2 & 2, Light Blue DNC 3, Dark Blue DNC 4
—————————————————-

Sources:

Which States Gained and Lost Electoral Votes

http://usgovinfo.about.com/od/thepoliticalsystem/a/2012-Electoral-Votes-By-State.htm

Rasmussen (Likely Voters) Daily Presidential Tracking Poll

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

Rasmussen Virginia Matchup – April 25, 2012

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/virginia/election_2012_virginia_president

Quinnipiac Ohio Matchup (Registered Voters) – May 10, 2012

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/ohio/release-detail?ReleaseID=1746

Quinnipiac Florida Matchup – May 3, 2012

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2012/05/23/romney_leads_obama_in_florida_114250.html

Rasmussen Pennsylvania Matchup – May 23, 2012

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/pennsylvania/election_2012_pennsylvania_president

2008 Presidential Election Results in Pennsylvania

http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/election2008/pa.htm

Marquette (Likely Voters) Wisconsin Matchup – May 16, 2012

https://law.marquette.edu/poll/2012/05/16/marquette-law-school-poll-shows-walker-kleefisch-lead-in-recall/

Statewide opinion polling for US presidential election 2012

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statewide_opinion_polling_for_the_United_States_presidential_election,_2012

Purple Predictors

http://www.purplestrategies.com/wp-content/uploads/AprilPurplePoll_v9.pdf

Real Clear Politics New Hampshire poll summary

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/nh/new_hampshire_romney_vs_obama-2030.html#polls

Rove: Romney’s Roads to the White House By Karl Rove – May 23, 2012

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304840904577422200571363734.html

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Filed under Barack Obama, Elections, John McCain, Mitt Romney, Polls

by | May 23, 2012 · 9:09 pm

Losing the War on Women

According to Mike Flynn at Breitbart, WaPo is using its latest poll to blat that Obama is beating Romney by 2 points, 49-47.

But the poll sample included only 22% Republicans. Gallup shows 28% of Americans currently self-identify as Republican.

And, as Flynn notes, if only 22% of actual voters next November are Republicans,

“it would be about the lowest turnout for the GOP in modern history. In 2010, 35% of voters were Republican. In 2008, the year Obama swept into the White House, 32% of voters were Republican. Even in 2006, the year Democrats took control of Congress, 36% of voters were Republican.”

Still , according to analysts, WaPo’s bias is consistent, which means changes within WaPo polls are actually meaningful.

Check out what happened to Obama’s favorability among women over the time period in which the White House and its media kennels ranted that Republicans just want women to be Stepford Wives:

Obama lost 6 points to Romney among women registered to vote.

Obama lost 21 points to Romney among married women!

Poll info sources:
http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2012/05/22/Poll-Proves-Obama-Lost-War-On-Women
http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2012/05/22/wapo-abc-poll-assumes-lowest-gop-turnout-in-decades-to-boost-obama
http://www.gallup.com/poll/15370/Party-Affiliation.aspx

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Filed under Barack Obama, Democrats, Media Bias, Mitt Romney, Polls, Republicans

by | May 23, 2012 · 6:07 pm

Pro-Life up 9 points


Chrissy’s Site Bites @ http://news.webshots.com/photo/2133447030056011884tNjpdx
Click on graphic to embiggen.

H/t to Pete for source:
http://www.gallup.com/poll/154838/Pro-Choice-Americans-Record-Low.aspx

If you like this, you might also enjoy @ http://news.webshots.com/photo/2710248710056011884TbwNjZ

2 Comments

Filed under Abortion, Polls

by | May 17, 2012 · 10:18 pm

Even skewing the sample isn’t helping

I’ve come to expect a poll by CBS News/New York Times to be left-biased. The latest one did not disappoint. With only 615 participants, they claim just 4 points in Margin of Error. NOT. And they decided to WEIGHT this one, because … oh heavenly days … the numbers of Republicans, Independents and Democrats actually MATCHED the national averages reported by Gallup! Can’t have that, now can we?

Republicans: Actual polled 28%. Gallup says that’s bang on. The pollsters weighted GOP responses down to 25%.
Independents: Actual polled 32%. Gallup reports 33%. The pollsters weighted Indie responses up to 34%.
Democrats: Actual polled 39%. Gallup reports 38%. The pollsters upped the weight of their answers to 41%.

Even so … they had nothing good to report, though they did their best to sugar coat it with adjectives. This is from the report:

The race for president remains close, but Republican Mitt Romney now has a three-point lead over President Obama, despite positive movement on the economy.

32% say the economy is in good shape – the highest percentage since January 2008 – but most (67%) still say it’s bad. 36% say the economy is improving.

While most voters say the President’s support of same-sex marriage will not impact their vote, 25% say they are less likely to vote for him because of it.

Most Americans favor some type of legal recognition of same-sex relationships, including 38% who support marriage. When asked directly whether same-sex marriage should be legal or not, 42% say it should be, but 51% say it should not.

There has also been a shift in female support away from Obama and toward Romney, suggesting the “Republicans are Waging War on Women” campaign is backfiring. Two months ago, the same pollsters got 49% Obama v 43% Romney among women. Now it’s 44% Obama v 46% Romney.

In other news the Left doesn’t want you to hear, yet another study shows that abortion increases a woman’s risk of developing breast cancer. The higher the number of abortions the higher the risk.

Sources:

“War on Women” Rhetoric Backfires, Romney Leads With Women
By Steven Ertelt | Washington, DC | LifeNews.com | 5/15/12 10:38 AM

“War on Women” Rhetoric Backfires, Romney Leads With Women

CBS News/New York Times Poll May 11-13, 2012 among 615 adults nationwide
http://www.cbsnews.com/htdocs/pdf/CBSNYTPoll_051412.pdf?tag=contentMain;contentBody

Gallup Party Affiliation Polls
http://www.gallup.com/poll/15370/Party-Affiliation.aspx

Study: Repeat Abortions Greatly Raise Breast Cancer Risk
By Steven Ertelt | Washington, DC | LifeNews.com | 5/15/12 12:51 PM

Study: Repeat Abortions Greatly Raise Breast Cancer Risk

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Filed under Media Bias, Polls

by | April 1, 2012 · 9:17 am

What do Americans really think about abortion?

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Filed under Abortion, Polls

by | April 1, 2012 · 2:48 am

Americans favor nuclear for electric

Click on graphic to embiggen.

Source: http://www.gallup.com/poll/153452/Americans-Favor-Nuclear-Power-Year-Fukushima.aspx

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Filed under Energy, Polls

by | March 15, 2012 · 1:41 pm

A brief overview of Carter’s approval ratings

I was looking again at this graphic I did yesterday and wondering what caused that big bump in Carter’s approvals between Days 1000 and 1200.

Click on graphic to embiggen.

Like Obama, Carter was elected because he was not the Republican. Their ratings both reflect the fact that they were long on hype and short on actual leadership ability, starting out high at inauguration and sinking fast.

Carter did better at the beginning than Teh Won though. They each started at 66%-67%, but Carter’s went up for a couple of months to reach his all time high of 75%. Obama’s started sinking immediately and crossed below 50% earlier than Carter had.

So far, Obama’s low point has been 40%. Carter’s lowest point was 28% which he hit in the last week of June 1979. The notable events listed in the timeline @ http://www.jimmycarterlibrary.gov/documents/jec/chron.phtml are June 12, 1979 Carter proposes National Health Plan to Congress and June 18, 1979 Carter signs SALT II Treaty in Vienna with Brezhnev.

I don’t know much about that time. I was too busy planning my wedding to pay attention to Jimmy Carter. But just at a guess … Americans didn’t much like him trying to shove nationalized health on us or compromising our national security playing footsie with the Soviets. But like I said … I was busy with invitations and such. So what do I know.

That one notable bump began in November 1979, when Iranian militants took Americans hostage in Tehran and he responded by imposing a ban on oil imports from and sale of weapons to Iran. Both measures damaged the Iranian economy and military capability and the American people clearly approved. His ratings went above 50% in December, then hit 58% at the end of January 1980.

On January 27, 1980, Canadians rescued some of our hostages, but that was the peak for Carter’s approval recovery. As we waited in vain for HIM to do something decisive, his approval ratings sank again, dropping below 50% by March.

He scored a small bump to 43% after launching a rescue attempt at the end of April, even though it failed and eight American servicemen died. But when there was no follow up, his ratings dropped again, hitting 31% by June. Going into the election that fall, he was at 37%.  After he lost, he dropped back to 31%.

It is a sign of the total contempt the Iranian hostage takers had for this weak, appeasing President that they chose to release the 52 hostages on January 20, 1981, at the moment Reagan completed his 20-minute inaugural address after being sworn in as President.

You can access and compare presidential approvals (since Truman) at Gallup @
http://www.gallup.com/poll/124922/Presidential-Job-Approval-Center.aspx

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Filed under Iran, Jimmy Carter, Polls

by | March 14, 2012 · 7:48 pm

Pew Poll shows liberals are LEAST tolerant

Hot Air’s Ed Morrissey writes, “It’s a well-known fact that liberals are more tolerant than conservatives or moderates.  Superior liberal tolerance is such a fact that they will scream at you if you dare to disagree or debate them, demand that your advertisers bail on you, and pressure the FCC to get you banned from the airwaves.”


Click on graphic to embiggen.

3 Comments

Filed under Polls

by | March 14, 2012 · 2:58 pm

Gallup Approvals – Carter vs Obama

One of my bloggy listers asked how Carter compared, so I checked Gallup’s interactive “Presidential Job Approval Center” feature http://www.gallup.com/poll/124922/Presidential-Job-Approval-Center.aspx and thought the results were just too juicy not to share!

Click on graphic to embiggen.

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Filed under Barack Obama, Jimmy Carter, Polls

by | March 14, 2012 · 10:02 am

Racism in the Laughing Stock Media

Dearest and I were talking about how the Laughing Stock Media has consistently used skewed polls to make Obama look better than he is.

I’ve seen O’bots on the net insisting that he’s the MOST popular president in history when in fact, his HIGHEST ever GALLUP approval rating (67%) is a tie with Richard Nixon’s for the LOWEST highest ever recorded.

It seems to me the media’s behavior is deeply racist. The President of the United States is the most powerful man on the planet. Why do they feel this need to act as if Obama were a spastic child who should rightfully be celebrated for taking a single step? Are their expectations of a black man in the White House THAT low?

Click on graphic to embiggen.

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Filed under Barack Obama, Media Bias, Polls